Obama Effect in Ethiopia: A dream out of political processes

The USA election has come to conclusion early this month. The land slide victory of Sen. Barrack Obama over his challenger Sen. John McCain, since then has become the subject of analysis and commentary among contributors in world media. The Ethiopian media outlets,  in the recent days in the post US election, have seen a rise in analysis and commentary on the important victory of president elect-Barack Obama to the white house. The analysis and commentary on the Ethiopian outlets is very clear-the need to learn from the victory of Obama and transform the political direction in their own homeland. A conclusion could be drawn from wide range of views as to how the victory of Sen. Barrack Obama could help the Ethiopian political actors to capitalise in shaping the future of politics in their homeland and harmonised the diverse society in search for common vision, value and belief. The difficulty, though, of realising such a grand and novel idea in the country with barely democratic history is not about how realistic it could be but how many years it would take to bring together a diverse and divided society if the current political system continues to prevail in the country.

In fact, the victory of President elect-Obama is very remarkable. The jubilation, excitement, well wishing and social parties across the world are enormous. Ethiopian public both at home and abroad deserve a place in this remarkable history of political change in one of the most powerful country in the world. The change of political direction and inclusive nature of American politics in the 21st century could eliminate some of the doubts in the mind of many political commentators. American public irrespective of other reservations of international community and individuals again deserve praises for showing the world that the institutions of democracy are embedded in the American legal system. The important question, thus, is whether such a remarkable electoral processes and fair judgement of candidates based on their policies rather than their social backgrounds and political affiliation exists in many countries in the world including our own homeland as many tend to portray.  Obviously the desire to streamline political decision making processes and fairly shortened the life of regimes in power is the long dream for many infant democratic states. Yet in the African continent were the majority of leaders in power would like to rule indefinitely, the Obama effect would be tall order.   

A comparative analysis of political systems, events and trends in both the USA and Ethiopia could be an important means to drive along the jungle of politics in order to draw meaningful conclusion as to whether there could be an Obama effect in Ethiopian context; perhaps, by rallying important political actors in an important vision that transcends the traditional values and beliefs embedded in the Ethiopian political and social history. Moreover, the search for the commonality in both systems to justify the Obama effect in the Ethiopian context would in fact be an important foundation for anticipating any joy of political change in our homeland. Firstly, let me argue that the success of Obama in the USA has to do with the supremacy of the legal system and the independency of the juridical institutions to provide such a level ground for the Obama victory political battle. Whereas the US democratic institutions are more developed and matured to guarantee such shift in political belief, the Ethiopian institutions, irrespective of its place in making history, still at infant and may require time to equate them with changes in the US.   Thus, it would be premature to jump on truck of change and conclude that Ethiopia would soon or latter follow the footsteps of America by transforming its political processes and indeed, transcend the USA Obama lead.  

Nonetheless, the introduction of democratic system and good governance, though symbolic in Ethiopia would ultimately mature gradually and perhaps some years to come. The Ethiopian public would benefit from long waits of democratic governance if the current regime is to open door for relative political game in the country. Although we cannot expect much from the current regime after over 17 years of rule during which the political life is dominated by a single party system, one should not deny the importance of shift in symbolic governance in a country at some point was rule by one party system and in another time under imperial rule. The following understanding of how the Ethiopian politics operate under the current regime and previous regimes would help to find out whether it is possible to realistically dream the Obama effect as some would belief.  

I bet to disagree that the current historical development of politics and the way the public institutions operate in Ethiopia would prove such fundamental political victory. If such political shift to happen in Ethiopia, the current regime that took power in 1991 by the barrel of the gun would be an important change agent by allowing all political opposition to come to a round table conference that would draw up a corner stone constitution that will remain in place for generations. The will to accommodate world of oppositions in the country by the current regime is an important step to realise the Obama effect in years to come and indeed, provide sustainable and stable political environment for generations.

In fact, such crucial will to change the political environment in Ethiopia, like many other African states that came to power through the barrel of the gun, is missing in our own homeland. As it stand, any political party or movement that have come to power without the power of grass root society share common parameters; immediate change to the predecessor’s constitution to suit their political party objectives, unnecessary changes in the public institutions, restructuring of security institutions to protect their own political ambition at the expense of the public security, embarking on political recruitment of some public servants that suppose to serve the constitution other than political party in power and destruction of their predecessors development institutions other than building upon them. These are very important elements of change to think that the Ethiopian Obama effect would come to reality in Ethiopia.

It is also possible to look around the continent and observe common denominators from the west to the east and north to the south of similar trend of ascending into power; i.e, through the military means. In such environment, it is very difficult to dream that such a remarkable shift in political direction would come to reality. However, the burden of historical political success, as I mentioned earlier, rest on those ones in power  by stepping aside and bringing the entire wave of political opposition to a round table with the objective of forming the foundation upon which the future generation could play politics at level ground. This reinforces the point that the Obama success in the USA has its foundation at the political institutions created years ago. If Ethiopia is to come out of destructive political attitude and break from the past, its diverse society irrespective of their political belief and background should come to a round table to create the foundation at which the future political game could be played. At the movement the current regime in power would play an important role to facilitate such an important ground for future generations. 

Among other important issues that I think anyone on truck of Obama effect in Ethiopia need to consider include how the current political system would favour such a radical change in a country with very limited democratic history and institutions. The interest of the current regime in upholding the rule of law and developed democratic institutions are paramount important in predicting how realistic the Obama effect would soon come to Ethiopia. By contrast, the democratic institutions in the US and the supremacy of the legal system has made such victory that the majority population of the world give due credit to the American democracy. The US political system has seen long history of incremental change and a relatively genuine affiliation of individual members along a limited number of political parties. The Ethiopian political system is still dominated by political suspicion and rapid change in the constitution every time a new regime assumes political power. This unpredictable change in political institutions and processes would make the Obama effect difficult if not impossible.

To further reinforce the argument in favour of the lack of Obama effect in Ethiopia under the current political environment, the TPLF/EPRDF leadership, though, claim to promote good governance, rule of law and fair electoral system, seems to drag its feet in implementing universally accepted standards of the democratic system. As many are aware, since the first election in 1995, the Ethiopian political system has been dominated by TPLF/EPRDF political elites across the country. Many, both in the country and abroad are witnesses of the remarkable political wind during the 2005 election which went into the direction of the opposition political parties had there been fair and free electoral processes. Due to the nature of political process that brought the current regime into power, many are today disappointed, lost their precious life, and above all awakening in the ashes of political monkey business. Worse than all, the day to day political preparation by the regime to ensure that the forth coming election in the country would not resemble the past dramatic one in which the regime  was nearly ashamed could prove the opposite by eliminating any dream for Obama effect.

It further important to look at the trend how civil institutions are structured and lack of non-partisan of civil servants in the political parties’ programmes and policies in the country would make the dream for Ethiopian Obama a very difficult journey. For those who have worked with the current regime, the way government institutions are structured and individual staff member affiliation to political parties in the country is another below to the Obama effect. The weekly or monthly political parties meetings and ongoing cadre training for individual members drawn from different government departments clearly indicate that civil servants are not accountable to the law of the land but to the political parties that they belong. Any change of direction or heart by individual to diligently serve the public without looking at the political party in power is strongly removed from the system.  That is why I argue that it is very difficult to break the threshold of political values that have been implemented by the current regime to protect its own political interest and members.

Another important issue that the world of divided political opposition needs to consider is the fact that the important public institutions responsible for protecting the law and order and public security are dominated by the political cadres and member of TPLF/EPRDF soldiers. For that very reason, one need not be in the inner circle of the ruling party to understand the nature of political training provided to the groups and how loyal they could be to the values and norms expected from them by the dominant political party. At the background, the security apparatus and important military institutions are well prepared to defend the view of the political party they belong rather than the public they suppose to protect.  

It is also significant to note that the diverse of world opposition groups both in Ethiopia and abroad need to consider the way the Ethiopian political system works and compare it to the presidential political system in the USA. As many have witnessed in the election campaign in the US, there was a clear indication of the ability of political nominees to choice the policy that they think would serve the interest of the country at large as well as the political party in question. This political value is removed from the political system in Ethiopia and many elections in the past were far from the choice of the public who would appeal to the country wide voters. Instead, the public is presented with a leader chosen on their behalf by the political party. This is one of the most difficult political instruments that would remove completely the Obama effect in the Ethiopian context under the current political system where the PM has every power to appoint the head of State.

In general, the claim that the Obama victory could be translated into the Ethiopian context, though, feasible would be a premature assumption under the current political arrangement and constitutional understanding. It is thus important for anyone who ideally would think that the current political system would be a favourable political arena to realise the important victory of president elect- Barrack Obama to look around the critical elements for such victory and become realistic in their thoughts.   

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