By Berhe W. Aregay

March 1, 2006 (Addis Ababa ) - Environmentalists and scientists the world over have convinced themselves by now that global warming will remain the nemesis of our climate from now till judgment come. Convincing the politicians and the captains of industry of the imminent dangers of the warming of our Planet, however, has been an uphill battle for environmentalists in a number of countries including in the west.

Doing something concrete about it has been even more deceptive. Greenland and Iceland, where nature seems to mint its glaciers and ice, maybe melting uncharacteristically under our noses, but politicians and scientists, in most instances, don't see eye to eye on the causes. Skeptics like to argue that natural processes, not man-induced green house gases, are exaggerating the melting of the ice in those places.

Unlike today, environmentalists and conservationists in the developed world some decades back claimed a string of victories.

Back then the issues were relatively straightforward: soil erosion, deforestation, clean air and water, eco-system conservation and the like.

The public listened to their messages and arguments and politicians taking the cue had to act. Even if there were especial interest groups that tried to stymie legislation and policies benefiting the environment, they too would come around before long.

But with global warming and climate change due to carbon emission shaping up to be the next environmental menace, consensus has not been easy to come by.

The unbridled use of fossil fuel is at issue here. And no good capitalist worth his salt, whether in China or India or anywhere is going to give up the right without a good fight, Kyoto Protocol or not.

Coming to the domestique front, how does global warming affect us and how do we affect it? Chaos theory or some version of it, they say, has it that even the fluttering of the wings of the moth sends ripples, the repercussions of which are felt at the other end of the Universe. So even poor, non-industialized third world countries are bound to have some impact. After all countries like Ethiopia that burn about one billion Birr worth of fuel annually cannot claim total pristine lifestyles.

How our actions affect global warming at this point in time, however, may not be as important as how it affects us. The Guardian, Monday January 16 2006 puts it thus,"... Climate change will dwarf the damage common agricultural policy subsidies wreak on African farmers; it is already costing at least 150,000 lives a year as warmer temperatures encourage disease, and erratic rainfall will starve millions in coming years. Here is an issue that makes all the aid and debt deals of 2005 like an afternoon palour game" Even so, however, Ethiopia before starting to worry about global warming and its aftermath should worry on more tangible natural resource depletions.

I think where we go wrong with the environment conceptually is we tend to forget that time is of the essence.

Perhaps most of us assume that abuses on the environment can be put on ice or on hold indefinitely until we can come back later at our leisure and begin the rectifying work. We tend to forget that there are tipping or threshold points.

A good case in point again is global warming. The beginning of melting of the glacier in ways and manners which hitherto were unseen in the Arctic is even more worrying because these odd ways of melting could be tipping points that prove irreversible.

Various ecosystems in Ethiopia may have reached a point of no return too.

There can be no doubt that with all the massive deforestation witnessed here in the last half-century or so that we have lost plant species that, we or anybody else may never see again. It is not inconceivable too that several animal species must also have disappeared for good, due to habitat destruction.

Out of the five or six charismatic, mega-fauna wildlife (like Rhinos) that the country used to be famous for, we don't know how many are still around anymore, despite tourist broachers brochures.

Many farming communities in different parts of the country have already passed through many tipping points with the result that their agricultural lands are as dry as a squeezed lemon. So environmentalists in Ethiopia, take heed, because time is of the essence.