Sudan: The CPA faces mounting pressure as elections postponed for yet another date

The comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the National Congress Party of President Al Bashir and the former southern rebels of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) clearly stipulates the elections, which is an important mile stone in the agreement, to take place in July 2007, but unfortunately this date has been postponed time and time again. And those who closely follow the Sudanese events must have already heard of the expected third postponement to a date beyond the February of 2010.

The deputy chairman of the national electoral commission, Abdullah Ahmed Salih, has warned that the upcoming elections in February might be postponed. He attributed the delay to the dispute over the census results, which SPLM has not yet accepted.

Salih told Reuters that due to the delay of the census results and SPLM's reservations over the results as well as the time needed for preparation of voters' lists, the electoral schedule might require some adjustment.

It should be a common knowledge that the CPA is limited by a time frame of six years that begun in July 2005 and should end by July 2011. Now we are only left with 24 months to go before we move into the post CPA era, yet many important provisions in this historical agreement remain unimplemented.

The SPLM’s position on the 2008’s Census was not to recognise the results even before the whole process kicked off in the country. Time and time again even after conducting the head count, the SPLM Chairman, the FVP of Sudan and the President of south Sudan had kept his stance not to recognise the 5th Sudanese Census as any basis for drawing up the constituencies for the National Elections nor as a formula for Wealth and Power sharing in the country.

Apparently people are made to believe that the Census results have been approved at the Presidency as well as by the International monitors, and accordingly the National Electoral Committee should have embarked by now on drawing up the constituencies as ordered by the President of the country Field Marshal Omer Hassan Al Bashir.

However the SPLM, the second largest partner in the government of National Unity has not changed its stance on the results. Many senior officials of the former rebels have time and time again voiced their discontent with the results of the Census, especially over the under counting of the south Sudanese citizens residing in the northern part of the country and the abnormal but unbelievable increase in the population of the south Darfur state , from a figure of some 3 million in 1993 to the current 7.5 millions in spite of the six years continuing civil war and massive displacement of the citizens to refuge camps across the borders, and those uncounted in the IDP camps.

The SPLM senior figure, Foreign Minister Deng Alor insists that those counted in south Darfur are mostly Arab nomads from the neighbouring countries of Chad, Central African Republic and place as far as Niger who where encouraged by the NCP of Al Bashir to settle in these places as part of the pro-government Janjaweed militias who has being causing havoc in the area and displacing the indigenous black African populations out of their homes. H.E Alor insists that these Arab nomads are not Sudanese citizens and as such have no right to participate in the elections.

On the other hand the whole of the NCP has refused SPLM’s calls to review the Census results. And President Al Bashir insists that the Census process has been conducted to the international monitors’ satisfaction and he sees no point in SPLM’s argument. He then officially declared that there should no longer be any discussions on the Census results and that the technical electoral committee should proceed with its work of preparing for the elections based on this disputed results in defiance of the SPLM’s concerns.

However in the reality the population Census results are not the only obstacles standing in the way of the expected elections. There are still the issues of demarcating the north south borders and also the borders of Abyei, which has been taken for an international arbitration and is not yet over.

Furthermore of course there are still the voters registry to be prepared, and as the critical month of JULY on which the whole CPA rests was improperly chosen by those who signed the agreement in 2005, it has now come to haunt them by reminding them that JULY is always a rainy season in south Sudan when large parts of this vast region becomes practically inaccessible due to poor roads.

This means for now no any voters’ registration shall ever be taking place in south Sudan, and the earliest ever could be some time in November 2009 that is if some magic happens for the two partners to adjust their positions.

However it seems that the SPLM, which has always lost at the presidency, is trying very hard to win this time at least for the sake of history.

These forth coming elections remains to be the first full general elections since 1986 and the National Electoral Commission with a good number of UN and international organisations have already started working with the intension of having a fair election.

Yet we are all aware of the challenges of conducting satisfactory elections in settings with hostile backgrounds like the Sudan. They are quite formidable, and the implications of the outcome are hard to predict, though of course these elections in principle could change the balance of power. However given the worrying history of the past elections in the Sudan (which witnessed widespread malpractices of intimidations, ballot-staffing, unequal conditions for campaigning and blocking of candidates), many are worried about what would happen when the final results are declared. There could also be boycotts by some unsatisfied groups and disputing of results, to any thing like those which happened in Zimbabwe or Kenya.

Other issues are the continuous censorship on newspapers and possibly the party campaigns. The press law despite the amended version passed on the 8/6/09 still allows the security forces to have control on the media. So there remains a need to revise the national security laws to be in line with the CPA in order to have fair elections.

And also while waiting for the National Parliament to endorse the Referendum Bill, the south Sudanese should again for the third time remember that the month of July is always a rainy season and it must be made clearly enough that the referendum should take place as early as January or February of 2011, which is far ahead of the rains as we can not afford to live another year within the mess of the united Sudan with endless fights over even obvious things like whether we are Africans or Arabs for that matter.

However speaking in Juba, the capital of south Sudan, the chairman of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC), Sir Derek Plumbly, said that there is a need for a renewed commitment to implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in order to focus on the priorities ahead and set the stage for the next elections.

Mr. Plumbly explained the need to try and resolve the outstanding issues in the CPA during the course of this year in order to set the stage for free and fair elections throughout Sudan.
He added that all the problems facing the agreement can be solved through discussion.

 The US administration has also extended an official invitation to both the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), to send a delegation consisting of three members each, to attend the CPA Supporters Forum in Washington, to discuss the process of the CPA implementation and finding means to solve the Darfur problem.
The Forum is expected to be held on the 23rd of this month.

Under the Chairmanship of the US envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, the forum will be attended by representatives from the IGAD countries and its partners. US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, will be addressing the event.

Given the importance of the outside backing the CPA still enjoys from EU, US administration, Kenya and to some extend the Chinese government, we hope that their timely interventions from time to time can continue to protect the CPA from collapse given the current sore relationship between the SPLM and the NCP. In fact in the light of the strained relationship between the two partners one is left utterly confused not knowing whether it is the lack of the timely implementation of the CPA that is behind the hostilities or are the hostilities the reason for not implementing the agreement to the spirit and letter?

Nevertheless for the Sudanese masses outside the inner circles of the two ruling parties, the future is bleak and if the CPA is to collapse the country will get back to square one and all those who are now beating the drums of war should have known what it means to go back to fight when we all known down inside our hearts that the Sudanese problems can never be solved through the barrel of the gun.
At this particular moment in the history of the south Sudanese a high degree of self-audit is requested from our political leaders when dealing with issues of war and peace. However all the south Sudanese forces must understand that there are other political forces in the north that do not approve of the CPA especially so of its articles that address the issue of self determination to the south.

The message should be the south masses should be vigilant to choose its representatives from people who are keen to deliver the peace dividends far from the present rhetoric and it now no secret to the people of the north that the south has already made up its mind to succeed, come the referendum.

Let us sort out our present shortcomings by adopting democracy in the real sense of the word. The unity of the southerners is a prerequisite to our success in guaranteeing our choice for an independent nation at the polls, but this unity should be brought about in a democratic way with full respect to human rights and the freedom of expression. If we cannot do it democratically then it is a waste and often counter – productive if done   otherwise

Dr. Justin Ambago Ramba
Secretary General
United South Sudan Party (USSP)