The next civil war in Sudan will be fought regionally

October 8, 2007 — It is generally acknowledged that the chemistry of conflict is hard to reverse. It is for this reason that nations are expected to make every effort to avoid internal, intra-state inter-state and regional conflicts.

Sudan of all countries in Africa does not need convincing having endured two protracted civil wars, the first round running from 1955 to 1972 and the second round running from 1983 until the signing of the cpa in 2005.

This however does not seem to be the case with some thinking in Khartoum as attested by recent reports that some elements in the ruling northern National Congress Party (NCP) had launched training of terrorists feared to be for assignments in South Sudan and elsewhere in the region and beyond.

This is in addition to its support for Janjaweed militia who turned Darfur into human slaughter fields.

There are also indicators that Sudan is likely to return to war if Khartoum government continues to frustrate the implementation of CPA. This view has in the past been expressed by GOSS President Gen. Salva Kiir, international and local analysts as well as church leaders.

What must be underlined is that the next Sudanese war will be a regional war. The following scenario is likely to emerge.

Should the war erupt, Arab solidarity may compel Libya and Egypt to side with Khartoum but the opposition groups in Khartoum may not be galvanized to support Khartoum to the extent that all ethnic groups in the South will be. As a matter of fact, it can be said that a new arc of conflict would emerge in the Horn of Africa.

International players could be sucked into the conflict. While United States is close to Egypt as a strategic partner in the Middle East, it may not be comfortable with the side whose partner trains terrorists.

China may beef up its military supplies to Khartoum for trading interests but should it occur that the South could win the war, it is likely to switch sides.

Somali Islamists could be lured to support Khartoum in return to kind gestures it received during its battled with Somali Transitional Government.

Equally so, the Oromo Liberation Front, which has been fighting Ethiopia with assumed support of Khartoum could feel obligated to support Khartoum.

That would provoke Ethiopia to swing in support of South Sudan. In turn, Eritrea, the arch-enemy of Ethiopia will find reason to forgo its low-intensity border dispute with Khartoum to support the North in a proxy war with Ethiopia on South Sudan soil.

Ethiopia and Eritrea have been engaged in inter-state dispute over a borderline in Yirga triangle. Conflict between them started in May 1998 when Eritrean troops crossed the then existing border and occupied an area around Badime in the Ethiopian side of Yirga.

South Sudan will expect the support of East Africans. Kenya and Uganda will have good reasons to support the South.

For Kenya and Ethiopia there is some fears that should Somali of trained Jihadist from Khartoum gain strength then they could revisit the old “Greater Somali dream.” The dream calls for annexation of the North-Eastern Provice of Kenya and the Ogaden region of Ethiopia where Somali populations live as citizens of the two countries.

Meanwhile it has been reported that a new (splinter) Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is being established and like before, it too expects support from Khartoum.

The formation of the new LRA comprises Ugandans, idle South Sudanese youth who find themselves vulnerable for one reasons. Throughout their lives they were busy in the struggle then lately after  the war they found themselves exposed to idleness they have never experienced. They are still victims of the gun culture.     In eastern drc the rebels fighting their government had more arms than hands and there fore went into recruiting spree. It is said among those recruited in 1999 were Kenya’s street boys who have now come of age.

Some of them, it is said, have opted to join the new LRA rather than return home as peace is expected to be restored in DRC.

It is therefore said that despite Juba peace talks between Uganda and LRA, the new LRA plans to be a regional rebel movement to team up with Oromos.

Kenyans will recall the Marsabit massacre two years ago which left about 200 dead. The Oromos were said to have participated in the massacre.

The relations between North and South Sudan are marked by increasing political crisis which points to imminent armed conflict. The regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Africa Union (AU) do not seem to be prepared in terms of either logistics and diplomacy effectively to address national or regional conflict. 

There has not been clear or well defined doctrine in both the continental and regional contexts to advance peace building capacity as experience has demonstrated.