Waves of Panic worldwide as the 2011 Self Determination Referendum for South Sudan gets closer

As the 2011 referendum on self determination for South Sudan gets closer the entire world is growing anxious. There is a wide spread panic  starting right in Juba and propagating  to Khartoum – Cairo – the Arab world, Western Europe, USA, and as far as the Peoples’ Republic of China.

But what is special about the year 2011? The answer is not straight forward as some would want us to believe. According to the CPA, this is the year when the future of the Sudanese nation shall be determined by its southern citizens in an internationally supervised referendum. On that day South Sudanese are expected to either vote for a united Sudan or opt for an independent South Sudan nation which will be automatically recognised worldwide as soon as the out come of the voting is announced.

Also on the same day the Dinka Ngok of the Oil rich Abyei region in south Kordofan are also expected to vote in a separate referendum to decide whether they want to continue to be under northern Sudan or be annexed to South Sudan where most of their kinsmen  live.

Though the two referenda are exactly what were agreed on amongst many other things in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Naivasha, Kenya between the south Sudan represented by the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) and the Khartoum Islamic government of Omer Al Bashir – the National Congress Party/ National Islamic Front (NCP / NIF), the implementation of the whole agreement have been all through lagging behind schedule.

Going back to the CPA – which was typical of a political marathon race, only came to be accepted by the south Sudanese when finally the NCP led Khartoum government, under international pressure agreed to include in the agreement the right of the people of South Sudan and the Dinka Ngok of Abyei  to self determination through an internationally supervised referendum .

The inclusion of the self determination for south Sudan in the CPA has been bitterly opposed by neighbouring Egypt and Libya as well as the Arab League. And their position on this issue still remains by far quite negative. It will not be a surprise to any one from these circles to do anything which would turn the out come of this referendum if ever carried out, to their favour which lies in the maintenance of a united Sudan.

Southerners have so far fought two bitter liberation wars, with the ultimate intention of breaking away from the north. But each time a peace agreement is signed it ends up with an autonomous south within a united Sudan and as the Khartoum government’s attitudes towards the south never changes, the issues which were diagnosed at the talks as the root causes to the conflict are each time intentionally left unaddressed by the Arab dominated central government , hence discontent and loss of trust surfaces time and time  again . And the bloody clashes in Abyei earlier this year is a clear example of that.

The CPA is different from the Addis Ababa agreement though it stresses unity of the Sudan, yet it allows the South to keep its separate army, unlike the Addis Ababa agreement where the Anya Nya fighters were absorbed into the Sudanese national army. This is not what made Southerners to appreciate the CPA, nor is the ending of the war the reason.

Southern Sudanese largely appreciated the CPA simply because it provides an opportunity for them in a referendum aimed at self determination, a chance for them to determine their own fate for the first time in their long struggle. If it fails they will go back to war. So ending a war is not what southerners are celebrating, but it is the self determination opportunity which CPA offers

Not surprisingly enough, now that the date for the referendum is approaching, many people including Southern Sudanese themselves are beginning to panic. Though each group has its own reasons for the unrest as time gets nearer and nearer, the manifestations are almost identical.  Lately every camp has started making new alliances, even between bitter enemies of yesterday.

Within the south, SPLM has swiftly accepted the south-south dialogue and H.E Salva Kiir in his opening speech had dwelled much on the unity amongst southerners and he openly declared that the CPA and the GoSS does not belong to the SPLM alone, but to all the people of the South. Further more some small political parties have declared their incorporation into the SPLM. Yet in another development, SPLM has asked the other 8 south Sudanese political parties to co-operate with it in the issues of the coming elections as well as the 2011 referendum.

However , for the common man in the South, the worry is that given the cunningness of the Arabs, they are worried as to whether  the coming 2009 elections is really going to be fair and transparent and also whether  the 2011 referendum is actually going to take place ? And what would be the positions of the other regional players like Egypt, the Arab League, and the northern political parties who openly express their discontent to very idea of self determination to be exercised by south Sudanese?

As for the National Congress Party NCP and the other northern political parties, the anxiety and panic are increasing day by day.  We are all eye witnesses to how Khartoum used to look before the discovery and exploitation of the oil  and how the oil money has transformed it into one of the beautiful African cities in less than a decade. The north used to take 100% of the oil income, then CPA reduced it to 50% and now the referendum for the self determination is going to further stripe of this remaining 50%.

It is the fear of weaning which is scaring and bothering Khartoum, and that is exactly  why they insist to keep the GoNU ministries of Energy and Finance to themselves during the six year interim period,  because they intent to suck as much out of the South’s oil as possible before they are finally forced to pull  their lips off these  oil  fields.

Whereas for the Misseiriya and the Rezeigaat Arabs of the central and western Sudan respectively , the main concern is about the grazing lands which normally extend into South Sudan. They are now worried as to what would happen when the South finally becomes an independent nation? Where would they take their cattle for grazing after that? It is here that the panic kicks in and anxiety grows. Of course additionally to this the Misseriya Arabs have something more to loose, which is the development which is expected to come to Abyei and the oil money agreed on in Naivasha. All these would be gone if Dinka Ngok opt to join an independent South Sudan.

The other groups who are not spared from this regional pre-referendum panic are the other marginalized black Africans of the political north, namely the Nuba, the Angasana and the people of Darfur. This group of people have currently realized that they are better off if the south remains part of the Sudan and hopefully a New Sudan, such that they can as well join hands to seize power in Khartoum. Unfortunately this is too little too late.

The above is followed by yet another extensive wave of panic, first in Egypt, then the rest of the Arab world as represented by the Arab league. In Egypt, the very idea that South Sudanese are entitled to exercise their right to self determination amounts to declaration of war. Egypt is worried that such an exercise to them amounts to gambling with its requirements for the Nile water. Egyptians frankly and bitterly oppose anything which might lead to an independent South Sudan nation, simply on their selfish argument that the emergence of any new nation along the Nile would complicate Nile water agreement thus upsetting the present quota enjoyed by Egypt.

However for the other Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, it is all got to do with the spread of Arabic language, the Arab culture and the Islamic religion into the interior of Africa. As such they view an independent predominantly Christian South Sudan as an obstacle to this program.

This article will be incomplete if I don’t discuss the Chinese concerns and how they view the coming referendum. Politics is all about interests, and Chinese politics is no exception. As of current China enjoys a great monopoly of the oil industry in South Sudan since they were introduced into the region by the National Islamic Front government of Khartoum. China was involved in oil exploitation in the south despite the world’s disapproval as the oil industry was forcefully displacing the natives from their villages to give way for oil drilling.

China is also the main supplier of arms to Khartoum knowing very well that these weapons are being used to suppress the rightful owners of the oil. Now as the referendum on self determination approaches, the Chinese are aware that with the succession of south Sudan, the vast oil reserves which they used to exploit freely will move under a new administration , thus opening doors for an unpredictable future at a time that china’s need for energy is continuously on the rise as its fast growing economy dictates.

The Chinese are also aware of the big western influence in south Sudan and this coupled with their past conspiracy with the north in fighting the south, seems to threaten their interest and makes them uncomfortable  and anxious.

The last group are the Americans and the Europeans, though their reactions may not be so obvious to some of us, but it is expected to intensify in the coming few months. This two big economic giants, though they played a great role in realizing peace in south Sudan, yet paradoxically they do not in any way appreciated the emergency of an independent south Sudan nation.

The west would want the south to remain as a part of a united Sudan,  as its presence could be utilized to dilute the strong Islamic sentiments in the northern part of the country and together with the other indigenous black Africans in the north, the south is expected by the West to play a major role in reverting Sudan back to secularism.

Here we are and time is running out as well as  everybody else  around us is panicking, what do we do? This should not be a difficult question to any patriotic south Sudanese. We have fought two bitter liberation wars with the Arabs of the north, and no one in his/her sound state of mind can go to war twice if  the  vision of what to achieve is not clear in his/her mind. And in our case, we want to achieve an independent south Sudan nation…….. It is only this that can quench our five decades thirst for liberty.

Let others panic, but we don’t need to panic.  let us rather prepare ourselves for that day and this can better be done by holding political rallies starting from today and not tomorrow,  where we are expected to exhaust everything pertaining to the coming elections of 2009 and thoroughly discuss in depth all the small details  of the 2011 referendum. We should have learned our lessons from how we approached the last census and those short comings incurred should not be allowed to re-occur again.

We are not going to argue much with outsiders as to why we would want to vote for an independent south Sudan, because this is what we want and it is what we have been fighting for over the past five decades. Do not exhaust your brains on side issues which are non south Sudanese at this crucial moment of our history. Think of your independency and how to develop that independent country.

“Be aware of the leaven of the Pharisees”, I mean the hypocrites. As we can see that many people are now extending their hands to south Sudan . A few of these are really genuine friends, but most are foxes in lambs cloths. We expect to see new hospitals, schools, hotels, roads, higher institutions, scholarships, investments, conferences and many others mushrooming in south Sudan in the coming few weeks, but let non of them soften you nor distract you from your five decades goal of achieving independence for south Sudan.

Finally I  expect each and every south Sudanese political party to be involved practically in preparing the people at the grass root level on how to approach the 2009 elections as a preparation for the final match (the 2011 referendum) and soon we will be there.