Ethiopia - TPLF’s Hidden Agenda: Mediation as a Tactic

Every time they are under pressure, desperate Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) regime in Ethiopia claims their door is always open to negotiations. We have seen this in 2005 when there was real jeopardy to their fate. After the heat of upcoming elections reached Jigjiga, and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) doubled its operations against the demoralised government military, they were forced to seek the help of Ogaden elders whom they refused to even talk to previously.

ONLF fighters

Time after time they tried to get rid of ONLF and its sympathisers. They call this organisation as ‘terrorists’. There has never been a year without a crackdown in this region and the bulk of the Ethiopian military find themselves trapped in an ongoing battle and consider this region the worst place to be. And things are never getting better for all of us. Despite all these atrocities, the current regime has always been on the loosing end of the battle against the Somali people, both at home and abroad.

Confused about how to create equilibrium for their conflicting policies, the TPLF is once again playing a game against the ONLF. They said they are going to negotiate with ONLF –the same organisation they called as terrorists. Nevertheless, this time they are using their new envoy Prof. Ephrem Isaac as a messenger. TPLF has always had a hidden agenda towards Ogaden. But this time their apparent objectives are as follows:

• a) To confuse the International Community
• b) to divert attention from their open-ended atrocities
• c) to kill the support of Ethiopian peace loving people for the ONLF
• d) and mainly, to divide ONLF leaders

The latest move by TPLF comes as crackdown of civilians continues and those who survived flee for their lives. A time when an Ethiopian army’s field commander claimed to have killed many ONLF fighters and captured many others alive. Lander which is a relatively stable village in the Haud has been a home for many fleeing Families. It is an open secret that for the army TPLF civilians and ONLF freedom fighters were of equal importance –they kill all. In the latest hours there has been reports from Dhagaxbuur that many villages around the famous Haro-Digeed valley have been carpet-bombed by helicopters positioned in Dhagaxbuur town.

Can Professor Ephrem Take fires between TPLF and ONLF?

Mediation is a process in which a third-party neutral assists in resolving a dispute between two or more other parties. It is a non-adversarial approach to conflict resolution. More interestingly, mediation has always been a part of Somali culture in the Ogaden as it is said u kala dabqaadid –literally meaning to take fires between warring parties as sign to mediate them. As a principle of mediation, a mediator must be neutral to the problem in question. Despite his position as a renowned professor in Harvard University, this gentleman lacks neutrality as he openly supported and continues to hail the criminal leaders of Addis Ababa regime and their flawed policies. He has gone to the extent to advocate the riddance of HR2003 in front of the United States Congress.

In addition, I doubt if the professor is acquainted with the long-standing trouble in the Ogaden and the realities on the ground; although I am sure he is aware of the brutality of TPLF against his own people: the Oromo. As an Ethiopian Jew who directs Institute of Semitic Studies in Princeton he can do better if he helps reconcile the Semitic language speakers, namely TPLF and CUD –Tigray and Amhara respectively. Or may be he can be successful if he settles the deep-rooted dispute between the Orthodox Church Synods, which of course, concerns him more than the Ogaden.

When it comes to Somali history and culture and how to negotiate them, Mr Zenawi knows better for he has been in Mogadishu (with Ogaden leaders) in 1980s for a long time!!! Instead of using all available opportunities Meles prefers to blame ONLF of reluctance and uses this as a pretext to press on with military operations in the region. On Oct 23 AFP quoted him as saying "We have spent years trying to convince the ONLF that negotiations were the only solution. We even sent elders abroad to meet them but they were reluctant," But wait a minute! We know ONLF have always sought a face to face dialogue in a neutral platform and you tell us this stuff while your forces continue to execute a campaign of terror against innocent people and more recently carpet-bombing villages and nomadic settlements in Haro-digeed. And Hey! Who arrested the leader of the elders you are talking about? ONLF or YOU? We know that you know we know!

Is TPLF really committed to end its wicked policies towards Ogaden?

Over 16 years have gone since the downfall of the Derg. Although the country is one the poorest performing nations according to UNCTAD's new edition of Trade and Development Index (TDI) (see here), much has changed for other regions where there are rebel movements, from Amharas Ethiopian People's Patriotic Front to Oromia’s OLF (Oromo Liberation Front), and Afar’s Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF). However, the Ogaden (Somali Region), except for very few projects which are not intended to serve the local people (Jigjiga University is one of them); there has been a total neglect and collective punishment.

As a rational person longing to see peace and development in his/her land, I have always asked myself why Shinile is so under developed. Why pastoralists living in Negele Zone, Jigjiga and Afdheer are marginalized. Why are there daily Ethiopian Airline’s flights to Godey while there is no infrastructure and access to basic services –you may think I am naive but I at least know planes go there daily just to make sure that the Chat business is booming!! Why many other places where neither ONLF nor other rebel movements operate are neglected. There is only one logical fact: The SOMALI people anywhere they may be are isolated and collectively punished by the regime in power by reasons some of which are unknown to me. That is why we have a chip on our shoulders!!

The Addis Ababa regime has always ignored the price paid by their troops killed in the battles. After all, most of them are not Tigrayans. That means TPLF kills two birds with one stone. Fighting with the ONLF and making non-Tigrays busy by fighting someone else’s war.

During the 2005 election campaign, Prime Minister Zenawi, who has always been a wolf in ship’s clothing, boasted that as a guerrilla fighter, he was able to rule Ethiopia through the gun, and by it will he only be removed, according to him. Contrary to his claim, I would always expect ONLF or any other rebels to engage their matters peacefully. But it is unfortunate if the non-violent cannot protest peacefully. So TPLF acknowledged (at least to themselves) that by its crackdown alone, it is only walking into the lion’s den and that they cannot defeat ONLF in the battle field, they seem to have opted for other hypocritical ways to get rid of ONLF for good.

One such way is to pretend as if they were serious enough to negotiate with ONLF; they must have calculated the outcome of their cheap lip service when they chose to send Prof. Ephrem Isaac as a messenger. They have done this before in 1995 when the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) split into two over negotiations with the TPLF. The “hawks” under the then ONLF leader Sheik Ibrahim Abdalla continued armed struggle, while the “doves” led by Bashir Abdi Hassan joined the EPRDF after merging with the Pro-TPLF Ethiopian Somali Democratic League (ESDL) of Abdulmejid Hussein. “TPLF succeeded in fragmenting the ONLF by engaging its more moderate members in negotiations and into the region’s patronage and spoils system (Tobias H. and Mohamud H, 2006) .

A word to the ONLF: Don't negotiate out of fear but don't fear to negotiate

To borrow a nice expression from John F. Kennedy who once said, "Don't negotiate out of fear but don't fear to negotiate” I would wish to see honest negotiations between the main actors in the Ogaden politics, namely ONLF and TPLF. I have already read a response from ONLF as I was in the middle of my writing. I appreciate the balance of your statement and how you always put your position clearly: “We have maintained that any such dialogue should be held in a neutral third country, in the presence of a neutral third party arbiter of international standing with no preconditions placed on either side” So I say to you: Please leave no stone unturned to unite your people and campaign the world to press Ethiopian government for a dialogue for a peaceful solution to the long suffering of the Somali people of Ogaden.

You have challenged them in the war front, but always remember in our modern time the pen is mightier than the sword. And above all, stay united!

(Opinion)