The new Eritrean strategies on Ethiopia affairs

Rumors of the month about the relationship between Eritrean government and main Ethiopian opposition parties have been centered on Isayas Afewerki’s funny magazine. The magazine is called "One Ethiopia” and it is supposed to unite all Ethiopians. I heard about this very late but I couldn’t stop laughing when I heard it. Maybe I am wrong and Isayas is serious. Even though Isayas has already damaged Ethiopian unity by separating the former Eritrean province, maybe this new strategy was supposed to attract opposition groups like CUD, EPPF, UEDF and attract other deeply pro-unity Ethiopian groups. Does this change of mind mean Isayas afewerki has abandoned Oromo, Sidamo and Ogaden liberation fronts? I have no idea! But I heard on some radios coming from outside Ethiopia that some liberation fronts are very mad at him.  
 
Anyway I feel like this is very calculated than it looks. Some people call Isayas reckless but I think he is smarter than people think. For example, I have always rejected the idea that Isayas wants to cut apart all of Ethiopia into small ethnic countries. When people say he wants to make tiny republics out of Ethiopia to weaken Ethiopia, it never made any sense to me. First of all, it is almost impossible to do that to all of Ethiopia. But most importantly, it is a very bad idea for the existence of Eritrea.

For example, if an ethnic nations called Tigrai Republic and Afar Republic are formed, what are the chances that Eritrean boundaries will be protected? Wouldn’t Eritrea’s existence be in danger itself? Such formation of ethnic countries will create more extreme ethnic awareness and maybe more ethnicities in the horn of Africa will try to create their OWN countries too. Of course, there are many factors involved. But I don’t think saying the above statement was unrealistic. Really,   if an Afar Republic is formed why wouldn't ethnic Afar natives in Eritrea want to join their fellow Afars in the new Afar Republic? Even without such ethnic nations existing, we already see MANY places in Africa where ethnicities want to form their own country. There are endless numbers of liberation fronts in Africa! So I am sure this danger to Eritrea’s sovereignty has been affecting Isayas Afewerki’s decision making.   I think his goal is just to help liberation fronts to a small degree enough to stir up Ethiopia and annoy the EPRDF government. Especially, Isayas arming ethnicities around Ethiopia has already caused violence in Ethiopia and the rebels accusing EPRDF for massacre/rape/genocides will always help defame the EPRDF government's reputation internationally.  With some miracles TPLF/EPRDF saved itself from UN condemnation of Gambella violence that was called genocide by rebels in 2003. The next genocide charges to humiliate EPRDF will be in Ogaden, by the ONLF. Then i think Isayas will move his focus on Oromia, then probably Sidamo. Or maybe Sidamo, then Oromia. Anyway this is mission accomplished for Isayas because he is harming EPRDF reputation, but at the same time  i think Isayas will not help the liberation fronts completely for the sake of Eritrean sovereignty in the long term. 


One important thing is, Isayas will not try to humiliate Ethiopian EPRDF government in the north of Ethiopia, like in Afar because it will affect Eritrea in the long term. Isayas knows that gaining short term benefits in expense of long term damages has been the mistakes of many Ethiopian governments. So his focus will be in southern Ethiopia for a long time. Especially I am sure he will never support the Afar liberation movements. But one thing that i don't understand is, if he helps the Ogadenis separate from Ethiopia wouldn't he start a chain of unstoppable events towards more and more ethnicities seeking secession? If this chain of events moves north and to the creation of Tigrai and Afar republics, the existence of Eritrea will be in deep danger! This indirectly harms Eritrea’s interests. Maybe Isayas already have a plan for that. No body knows.


Anyway I hear many Eritrean govt cadres keeping the old manifesto of Tigrai republic alive in the mind of Ethiopian people in order to warn Ethiopians about TPLF’s old wish to create Tigrai Republic. But these Eritreans are doing this not only to create distrust in Ethiopia but also to help their own country by persuading Ethiopian nationalists. Thus if Eritreans stop the formation of Tigrai republic, ethnic nations like Afar, Tigringa, Nara Saho, Kunama etc will not think about separation from Eritrea too. For example, the Kunama liberation groups have been fighting the Eritrean government for more than 5 years and some Afar liberation groups like ARDUF don’t even recognize Eritrean sovereignty. 

So, anyway,  was the “One Ethiopia” Magazine idea by Isayas a plan to push the momentum towards unity while supporting liberation fronts at the same time?? Maybe, who knows. But I read that the United Nations Security Council is closely watching every move of Isayas when he sends weapons to liberation fronts in Ethiopia. Recently I have been hearing that Isayas support for the Gambella rebels is decreasing because of the international spotlight on Eritrea’s arm dealing projects around Ethiopian borders. But in my opinion, Isayas has really changed his policy and he sees that the real danger to Eritrean survival is many ethnic countries being formed. Maybe he is just playing games with all us! 

Email me… what do you think??  ( )