The latest tracking data from Nanos Research reveals that the Conservative party is solidifying its lead over the Liberals in Canada. The Conservatives currently hold 33.1% support, while the Liberals trail behind at 29.7%. The NDP stands at 21.7% in terms of public support.
Although the gap has narrowed compared to earlier in the month, where the Conservatives had 36.6% and the Liberals had 27.2%, the trend of the Liberals consistently staying in second place to the Conservatives since February remains unchanged.
According to Nik Nanos, the pollster and chief data scientist of Nanos Research, the noticeable advantage for the Conservatives can largely be attributed to “economic anxiety” among voters. The cost of living crisis has caused increased concern, leading people to prioritize pocketbook issues when casting their votes.
Nanos identified jobs and the economy, inflation, and the cost of housing as the top issues of concern for Canadians. However, the environment has taken the top spot, driven by extreme weather events and widespread wildfires across the country. This combination of pocketbook concerns and environmental issues has created a complex landscape for Canadian voters.
Nanos highlighted the province of Ontario as a significant battleground for the parties. The Conservatives have become more competitive in the region, which has influenced the seat projections. The Prairies are considered a stronghold for the Conservatives, while the Liberals maintain a strong presence in Quebec. Atlantic Canada is witnessing potentially close races between the two parties.
Notably, recent numbers indicate a decline in Liberal popularity among younger voters, a demographic that has traditionally supported Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Among 18-29 year-olds, the Liberals now find themselves in a distant third place with 15.97%, trailing behind the Conservatives with 39.21% and the NDP with 30.92%. Nanos emphasized that the Liberals must address this issue by regaining the support of women, mobilizing younger voters under a unified progressive platform, and improving their competitiveness among male voters.
As the next federal election is scheduled for 2025, the Liberals will need to take strategic measures to secure victory.